Friday, 16 November 2007

I don't want to keep worrying you but.......

The forecast of damaging storms next week which I posted here, has been amended, and a warning has been sent to the Environment Secretary.

Latest update from Piers Corbyn - taken from letter he has sent to Hilary Benn MP:

"Our best forecasting knowledge at this moment suggests the high risk of a two stage unfolding emergency situation. (at 80% confidence that both of these dangerous weather stages will occur., ie a 20% chance that one or other will not substantially materialize).

1. Deep Low pressure systems and storm(s) tracking through northern parts of the UK and heading into South Scandinavia – causing gale damage in northern UK inland and a Northerly wind over the North Sea in their tail giving a potential North Sea storm surge driving sea water to the south of the North Sea.

2. Deep energetic Low(s) tracking across Central or South parts of the British Isles producing damaging winds inland, a high likelihood of local tornado developments – eg along south coast and onshore gales which are likely to lead to threats to or actual breaches of sea defences on the vulnerable parts of the South Coast and the ‘inner Bristol Channel’, including or near Bristol, Cardiff and Gloucester. This development can also give a strong North wind in the North Sea as it passes into Europe adding to any tidal storm surge or raised sea level already there.

Given recent confirmation of expected developments in Sun-Earth relations we are now over 90% confident that there will be major damaging storm(s) including serious risk of breaches of sea defences* in a number of parts of the UK in the period 23rd to 26/27th November and therefore it is in the public interest for those involved in Emergency Services - and the public - to be given maximum advance warning.
We make this information freely available in the public interest. (* NB Full Moon 24 Nov 14.31hrs)."

It should be noted that the techniques for medium and long-range forecasting have not been universally accepted - so the Met Office isn't issuing warnings (yet?)

PS great photos of last week's surge in the East Kent Mercury!

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